Sandy Aftermath: Calculating Economic Damage a Tricky Proposition

State troopers have been deployed at all gas stations along the NJ Turnpike and Garden State Parkway, where dwindling gasoline supplies are causing frayed nerves as the region endures its third full day with massive power outages.

Frustration with gas supplies topped the list of issues causing tensions to boil over in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, the states hardest hit by power outages in the wake of superstorm Sandy. Residents jockeyed for fuel at the few stations still pumping, searched store shelves in vain for batteries, struggled with sporadic cell phone service and found themselves unable to buy necessities at supermarkets.

The folks at Strategas Research Partners estimate Sandy affected about 1/4 of the total U.S. economy for several days, which could depress economic growth by several tenths of a percentage point.

That’s a material amount, especially considering third-quarter growth came in at 2.0% and economists were expecting comparable growth for the current period prior to the storm.

Strategas notes the fact that the storm hit in the first month of the fourth quarter leaves time for rebuilding efforts to offset some of the lost business. That should help limit the impact on GDP.
Still, analysts are all over the map when estimating how growth for the rest of the year will play.  Economists at Jefferies calculate that the total drag from Sandy will be around 0.4%-0.5% of fourth-quarter GDP.
But High Frequency Economics  says the economy will suffer “limited fallout” when all is said and done.

Sandy Aftermath: Calculating Economic Damage a Tricky Proposition

Hurricane Sandy: Live Updates

Hurricane Sandy: Live Updates

4:58 PM EDT: AP increases nationwide death toll from Sandy to 39.

4:42 PM EDT: In a sign of the times, the Montclair, N.J. city council will open its chambers to the public on Wednesday, so residents without power can charge their cell phones.

3:42 PM EDT: New York City cancels Wednesday’s Halloween parade, for the first time 39 years.

2:58 PM EDT:  “My message to governors and mayors and through them the communities hit so hard, we’re going to do everything we can to get resources to you and make sure any unmet need is responded to as soon as possible,” said President Obama at Red Cross HQ in Washington.

2:56 PM EDT: MTA announces limited bus service returning to New York City beginning this evening at 5 pm.

2:37 PM EDT: At Red Cross HQ, President Obama warns of more flooding, saying: “This storm is not yet over.”

2:35 PM EDT:  Death toll rises to 38 across seven states, according to AP.

1:14 PM EDT: A spokesman for Rep. Bob Turner, a Republican from Queens, N.Y, confirms that the congressman’s home was among those burned in a series of storm-related fires that broke out in the Breezy Point section of the borough.

12:54 PM EDT: New York Stock Exchange confirms they will open tomorrow.

11:52 AM EDT: Firefighters using boats and military vehicles tell WABC-TV that they have “a couple hundred” more people to rescue in Little Ferry, N.J before high tide comes in again.

Hurricane Sandy is currently located 40 miles south of Atlantic City, moving west-northwest at 28 mph. Landfall is expected to occur in the next two hours, somewhere along the southern New Jersey coast or just south of it.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 90 mph with higher gusts, and it is not expected to weaken until landfall, according to a 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Floodwaters are rising rapidly along the New Jersey coast as the evening high tide approaches, and some areas are nearing all-time record high water marks.

Hurricane Sandy: Live Updates